We explain our math: honest analytics, no black boxes
Every number Pick Pilot surfaces comes with its inputs, assumptions, freshness, and confidence. Here's what that looks like — and why it matters.
The problem with most fantasy tools
You see a number — "85% win probability" — with no context. What inputs? What assumptions? Data from when? How confident? Tools that hide this are selling you opinions dressed as math.
What we surface on every number
The Pick Pilot analytics contract requires five fields alongside the value; coverage remains a release-audit item on legacy surfaces:
- inputs — the exact data rows the number was computed from (player ids, date ranges, league id).
- assumptions — the modeling choices (for example, the run fidelity, seed, rolling window, and availability treatment).
- freshness — how stale the inputs are (for example, a source timestamp and status).
- confidence — a model-specific quality score (e.g., sample size, projection variance).
- explanation — plain-language why the available inputs moved the result.
Why it matters
A fantasy decision is a bet. Bets without priors are gambling. We want you to see our priors — disagree with them when appropriate, weight them when they fit, ignore them when the context is non-standard.
What it looks like in practice
An illustrative matchup result should read like this:
- Value: a modeled win probability for Team A.
- Inputs: disclosed run fidelity and seed, using a named rolling-form window with availability adjustments.
- Freshness: the actual source timestamps.
- Confidence: the interval/method supported by that engine.
- Explanation: the named advantages, risks, and missing evidence in plain language.
Closing
We think you should know the math. That's the bet we're making on you.